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Sudan crisis: Mediators over a barrel in mission to end fighting
With the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, transformed from tranquil city to war zone, Saudi Arabia and the US have called the warring parties to Jeddah to seek agreement on a ceasefire. But as Sudan expert Alex de Waal says, it will just be a short-term, emergency step.
There is a dilemma for mediators: whatever decision they take on the format and agenda for emergency talks will determine the path of peace-making in Sudan through to its conclusion.
To silence the guns, the American and Saudi diplomats will deal only with the rival generals who have each sent a three-person negotiating team to Jeddah.
The agenda is a humanitarian ceasefire, a monitoring mechanism and corridors for aid. Neither side wants to open negotiations towards a political agreement.
The civilian parties and neighbourhood resistance committees, whose non-violent protests brought down the authoritarian regime of long-time leader Omar al-Bashir four years ago, will be onlookers.
It will not be easy to get the two generals to agree to any kind of ceasefire.
The army chief, Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, will insist that he represents the legitimate government. He will label Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as "Hemedti", as a rebel.
But Hemedti, his de facto deputy until the clashes, will demand equal status for the two sides.
He will want on a freeze-in-place, leaving his paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighters in control of much of Khartoum. Gen Burhan will require a return to the positions in the days before the clashes began.
Support : - 【≪C NN -> NNP≫】〈確度〉0.70 〈意味〉 Support
Forces : - 【≪C NNS -> NNP≫】〈確度〉0.71 〈意味〉 Forces
RSF : - 【≪C NN -> NNP≫】〈確度〉0.48 〈意味〉 RSF
Getting a compromise means hard bargaining with the generals.
The mediators need to gain their confidence and assure them that, if they make concessions now, that will not leave them exposed and vulnerable.
The downside is that the two warring parties will then demand the dominant role in political talks and an agenda that suits their interests.
One thing on which Burhan and Hemedti - and the Arab neighbours - agree is that they do not want a democratic government, which had been on the cards before the fighting began. The two military men had run the country since the 2019 which ousted Bashir, refusing to hand power to civilians.
Another point of agreement will be amnesty for war crimes.
Negotiations dominated by the generals are likely to end in a peace agreement in which they share the spoils, setting back the prospects for democracy for many more years.
But if the fighting is not stopped soon, Sudan faces state collapse.
Abdalla Hamdok - prime minister of the joint military-civilian government ousted by the generals in 2021 - has said the country's new war threatened to be worse than Syria or Yemen.
Yemen : - 【≪C RB -> NNP≫】〈確度〉0.44 〈意味〉 ＝ Republic of Yemen、〈国家〉イエメン共和国、アラビア半島南端にある国家
He might have added, worse than Darfur.
Frontline reinforcements
There is a grim predictability about how Sudan's civil wars unfold.
In the opening days, the military commanders - army generals and rebel leaders - are driven by an angry resolve to land a knockout blow on the other side.
Combat is fierce as each side focuses its attacks, and it is easy to identify who is on which side - and who is staying neutral.
We saw this when the Sudanese civil war broke out in 1983, again in Darfur 20 years later, and in the conflicts in Abyei, Heglig and the Nuba Mountains close to the north-south border at the time when South Sudan separated in 2011.
The first clashes in South Sudan's own civil war in 2013 also looked like this.
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Riyadh : - 【≪C NN -> NNP≫】〈確度〉0.29 〈意味〉 〈地名〉リヤド、サウジアラビアの首都
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